CMHC: Ontario mortgage arrears will keep rising through mid-2027

Ontario's arrears rate hit 0.32% in Q2, and CMHC's new Residential Mortgage Industry Report says the largest, most sustained increase in Canada will be concentrated in the GTHA and Southwestern Ontario, right in the Windsor-Essex and London footprint. Stress is showing up first in auto loans, credit cards and lines of credit, and mortgage investment entities are taking the brunt. CMHC is clear this is not a broad crisis and the worst of the renewal shock has passed.

Investor impact: this is a dated, mapped distress pipeline, not a crash. Expect a slow build of motivated sellers and lender-led sales in your exact markets through mid-2027, and treat non-mortgage delinquency as the leading indicator.

Source: CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Oct 27, 2026.